Theory of Change
A Theory of Change explains the long-term impact a project or organisation wants to achieve, what is needed to reach this impact, and how progress will be tracked. It usually includes both a written explanation and a diagram.
A Theory of Change can focus on a specific project or on an entire organisation (for example, see Flipflopi’s Theory of Change in the 2022 Annual Report, page 5). An organisational Theory of Change is useful because:
- It provides a clear vision of the long-term impact the organisation wants to achieve.
- It helps the organisation focus on funding opportunities that match its goals.
A Theory of Change also considers external factors that can influence success:
- Assumptions: Important external conditions that must exist for the project to succeed but are outside its control. These are often seen as positively framed risks.
- Drivers: Key external factors that can help achieve results. Unlike assumptions, drivers can be influenced by the project and its partners.
A Theory of Change is not fixed – it can change over time as new information becomes available.
The image below shows a simple example based on the Flipflopi Project’s Theory of Change. It focuses on reducing plastic pollution in a coastal area where there is no formal waste management or recycling, similar to Lamu before the project began.
Useful links to learn more about Theory of Change:
- https://www.betterevaluation.org/frameworks-guides/managers-guide-evaluation/scope-evaluation/describe-theory-change
- https://www.evalacademy.com/articles/differences-between-theory-of-change-log-frames-results-frameworks-and-logic-models-what-are-they-and-when-to-use-them
- https://thetoolkit.me/approaches-tools/key-tools/the-theory-of-change/
